Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 93076.955772 98151.309279 103222.858636 108668.510907 114346.879227 120089.837531 126333.644384
2025-09-07 85128.345649 92921.853008 100926.452578 109751.859757 119198.554810 128996.350646 139915.776279
2025-09-14 79365.629608 89033.768147 99179.504164 110598.670082 123071.166787 136258.423254 151233.308281
2025-09-21 74439.810214 85463.632212 97243.373305 110731.987205 125713.439154 141805.730628 160360.822880
2025-09-28 70431.692579 82525.514441 95655.238393 110916.619096 128113.781186 146838.166549 168711.221273
2025-10-05 68089.336685 81225.103580 95685.955765 112715.677218 132147.401668 153553.398527 178839.746603
2025-10-12 65877.594644 79898.416498 95532.524793 114165.294676 135669.829283 159610.972430 188177.821829
2025-10-19 63527.834689 78263.412640 94893.955207 114937.554852 138317.486396 164603.136197 196260.264181
2025-10-26 61049.717601 76346.325071 93810.171205 115083.426210 140148.417780 168590.153530 203143.842024
2025-11-02 58972.879901 74799.986701 93066.598662 115540.838702 142270.344041 172862.273385 210329.197289
2025-11-09 56807.628400 73050.590737 91995.198019 115528.941971 143771.710486 176362.007328 216584.405750
2025-11-16 55425.225088 72184.474389 91921.651180 116657.611864 146588.717007 181386.666964 224634.717536
2025-11-23 53403.238278 70482.186632 90800.426962 116499.642201 147862.704823 184608.062932 230605.642329
2025-11-30 52345.614562 69933.401842 91051.429983 117986.616240 151113.366553 190196.892672 239439.084503
2025-12-07 51105.603493 69104.693048 90914.741605 118962.254922 153719.437654 195006.935648 247354.784556
2025-12-14 49546.862474 67814.979491 90154.897005 119121.188966 155289.241580 198544.644730 253731.169480
2025-12-21 48099.033284 66615.532862 89461.681623 119321.113937 156876.987323 202085.452978 260110.028866
2025-12-28 47527.869953 66521.033544 90141.558156 121231.635606 160587.828792 208235.825234 269713.950346
2026-01-04 46824.226519 66224.269636 90540.672977 122770.317479 163828.259753 213816.989021 278648.189612
2026-01-11 45840.641815 65524.863795 90394.357836 123589.877831 166149.006579 218259.267729 286191.698569
2026-01-18 44617.814295 64469.550212 89753.989664 123744.678753 167604.877413 221614.716676 292389.439438
2026-01-25 43593.172565 63647.359075 89388.510327 124230.047906 169465.461600 225471.441425 299224.232143
2026-02-01 42408.762810 62574.361657 88662.455725 124217.424912 170665.498174 228486.369708 305005.408137